google chrome browser - congratulations

Google, the sometime darling, sometime oligarchic scourge of the Internet, "accidentally" let slip—via a 30-plus-page online comic book no less—that it has its own browser, "Google Chrome", in the works, and then later fessed up on its official blog that Chrome will launch in 100 countries tomorrow. Open-source and, thanks to "Gears" integration, primed to work with Google's cloud-computing suite, Chrome has the Web buzzing.

Yes, a browser, which many people—incorrectly by the way—consider a substitute operating system is definitely a better move than the once-rumored "Google OS." However, it's not worth getting crazy about.

Already pundits are predicting the downfall of IE and even Firefox. Yes, I too like the sound of this browser. The detachable tabs sound sweet. The walled garden (or "sandbox") processes that shut down discretely and that prevent accidentally sharing damaging code sounds smart. Yet, for today at least, this is still vaporware with zero users.

Also, there seems to be the assumption that just because Google steps into the space it can own it. Must I remind you all of Google Talk? Does anyone use that AOL Instant Messenger competitor? Google obviously imagines that a popular browser product will float its chat, mail, cloud computing, and other offerings. Call me a skeptic.

Overall, Chrome doesn't sound like it'll break any new ground. The anti-phishing technology is important, but our testing shows that Internet Explorer 7 and Firefox are already pretty good front-line defenders for phishing attacks.

The customizability of tabs, allowing site and app developers to hide and show certain features sounds like a good idea, too, until you consider how average users will respond to the inconsistencies. Remember how users squawked when Microsoft moved the Home, Refresh, and Stop buttons on IE 7?

Innovation (or the lack thereof) aside, this is clearly a smart move for Google. The synergy among all its services is obvious. But please, folks, let's not throw a parade because Google is promising an open-source approach. We do, in Firefox, have a very, very good open-source browser today.

Here's how I see this all playing out.

Google releases Google Chrome beta tomorrow in 100 countries, and people like it, but they like Firefox 3, which they've been using most of the year, more. The initial rush to get the browser should make it incredibly difficult for many people to actually try out Chrome, but even after the hoopla has had time to settle down, it'll be Firefox's market share that grows, not Chrome's.

Google Chrome does gain instant popularity and notoriety among the Web cognoscenti, but average users are still with the IE 7 that came with their Vista desktops or the Firefox browser their somewhat techier friends downloaded for them.

Firefox's market share reaches 30 percent by May 2009.

Meanwhile IE 8 Beta 2 (in my experience, a buggier beta than the developer edition) goes full release later this year, but does not inspire. The Firefox "Awesome bar" still beats IE's updated address bar, and Google's Omnibox address bar's promise of more fluid response is no head-turner.

By May 2009 Google Chrome has a whopping 1 percent of the market. By mid 2010 Firefox has 50 percent of the market, IE 45 percent, and Google Chrome and Opera are fighting over the scraps.

Is Google Chrome big news? Sure. Any time the world's leading search engine company exhales or develops a hangnail, it's news. A full-blown-product in a key, albeit free, category is important. Yet this one won't be a game changer.

As I said, don't get too excited about Google Chrome